Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Model with Fourier Series and Markov Theory Residual Error Correction
作者：
李欣然;陈鸿琳;冷华;陈国民
通讯作者：
Chen, Hong-Lin(lin_xiuxian@yeah.net)
作者机构：
[李欣然; 陈鸿琳] College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Hunan Univ, Changsha, Hunan, 410082, China
[陈国民] School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Hunan City Univ, Yiyang, Hunan, 413000, China
[冷华] Electrical Research Institute of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company, Changsha, Hunan, 410007, China
通讯机构：
College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Hunan Univ, Changsha, Hunan, China
语种：
中文
关键词：
电量预测;灰色模型;残差修正;傅里叶级数;马尔科夫链
关键词(英文)：
Chains;Economics;Electric power plant loads;Electric power utilization;Error correction;Errors;Forecasting;Fourier transforms;Markov processes;Electricity demand forecasting;Electricity-consumption;Fourier series method;Froier series;Grey Model;Load forecasting;Markov Chain theory;Mid-long term load forecasting;Fourier series
Gray model is widely used in mid-long term electricity demand forecasting, but the model fits exponentially increasing data more precisely. Due to China's economic growth rate fluctuations, the increase in electricity consumption is slowing down, and electricity varies stochastically. So it is necessary to propose a new model to reflect the new situation. To solve the problem of the poor anti-interference ability of grey model, this paper proposes a model with Fourier series and Markov theory residual error correction based on grey model. This ...
