期刊论文

Liu, Liming(liulm@cau.edu.cn)

中文

农业工程学报

1002-6819

2017

33

24

249-260

10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.24.033

国家自然科学基金

本校为其他机构

为准确判定经济增长和农业景观面积变化的结构突变时点,划分都市农业景观演变阶段,该文以上海市西郊的青浦区为例,利用1978-2015年的经济和农业景观时间序列数据,采用Gregory-Hansen变结构协整检验对该区经济增长与农业景观面积变化进行分析。结果表明:长时段的不考虑结构突变点的协整检验方法,对处于经济社会快速转型期的上海市青浦区并不合适;而变结构协整方法能较好地反映长时段内经济和社会结构变化,体现该区经济和社会系统内部长期均衡关系;青浦区的经济增长是以牺牲农业景观资源为代价而实现的;1978-2015年青浦区农业景观演变可划分为3个阶段:低水平协同阶段(1978-1995年)、反向推动阶段(...

The economic growth and the change of agricultural landscape resources quantity have significant temporal variability and evolution stages. Researching the relationship between the 2 parties and recognizing the stage characteristics have always been a hot topic in the region of resource economics. This study tried to find the point of structural mutation, divided the evolution stages of urban agricultural landscape, and analyzed the reasons. It used time series data of the economic growth and the change of agricultural landscape resources quant...