期刊论文

中文

预测

1003-5192

2016

35

3

69-74

10.11847/fj.35.3.69

国家社会科学基金资助项目(14AZD127) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171203) 湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2015JJ2025)

本校为其他机构

本文模拟分析复杂动态和主体博弈环境下的重大交通设施项目风险形成与演化机理问题。首先,分析了重大交通设施项目风险要素来源以及它们之间的互动组合关系;然后,分析了重大交通设施项目风险不同层次的复杂动态交互演化机理;最后,构建了重大交通设施项目风险演化的"三重动力机制模型",并通过系统仿真方法测度了三种动力的敏感性。通过研究证明了重大交通设施项目风险是环境变化、主体博弈和系统自演化三重动力交互作用的结果。

The paper focuses on risk formation and evolution of huge infrastructure projects in the context of complex dynamics and stakeholders gaming by simulation analysis. Firstly,it analyzes the origin of risk factors and their interactive and combinational relations. Then interaction evolution mechanism of risks among different levels is expounded.Lastly,it builds a model of Three Dynamic Evolution and measures the sensibility of three powers through simulation analysis. The study and analysis proves that the risk of huge infrastructure projects is the result of the interaction among environmental ...