According to the measured results of roadbed settlement, the change law of settlement was analyzed and the accuracy was compared using three gray prediction models. The optimal gray prediction model was chosen to predict the final roadbed settlement, and modified gray target decision theory was used to comprehensively analyze the effect factors of roadbed settlement, then off-target distances were corresponded with roadbed final settlements. In addition, non-equidistant prediction model was employed to the law between final settlement and off-target distance. The results show that the model ex...