期刊论文

Frequency Analysis of Non-Stationary Extreme High Temperature in Hunan Province

中文

长江流域资源与环境

1004-8227

2018

27

12

2878-2885

10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201812024

41472238:国家自然科学基金 20110001:湖南省重点学科建设项目(十二五)

本校为其他机构

受气候变化和人类活动等因素影响,水文气象时间序列失去了一致性。以湖南省89个气象站点1960～2013年逐日气温资料为基础,选取年平均日最高温度（AMMT）和超过95th分位值的平均日最高温度（POT）,研究非一致性条件下湖南省极端高温指数的频率特征。结果表明:湖南省89个站点中有59个站点（66. 3%）的AMMT序列和23个站点（25. 8%）的POT序列呈现显著的非一致性。利用线性矩法和Cramer-von Mises（CM）检验等方法,发现广义正态分布（GNO）函数能较好地拟合研究区极端高温指数序列。通过还原途径修正非一致性序列,并对修正前、后不同重现期水平下的极端高温指数的估算值进行对比,发现气候变化条件下...

The time series of hydrometeorology has lost its consistency,because of the influences of climate change and human activities. Based on the daily temperature data during the period of 1960-2013 in 89 meteorological stations over Hunan Province,the annual mean maximum temperature (AMMT) and peak over threshold (POT) are selected to detect the inconsistent characteristics of the extreme high temperature indices. The results showed that there were significant inconsistencies in the AMMT series of 59 sites (66.3%) and the POT series of 23 sites (25.8%) out of 89 stations. The parameters of five ex...